The 2024 Sri Lankan Presidential Election, held on September 21, 2024, demonstrated a significant shift in the nation's political landscape, highlighting both the growth of the voter base and the decline of the Rajapaksa family's dominance in national politics. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the National People's Power (NPP), won with 42.31%of the vote, defeating Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe (Wikipedia )(LankaWeb).
Growth of the Voter Base (2010–2024)
Since 2010, Sri Lanka has seen a steady increase in its voter base due to population growth and increased political engagement following the end of the civil war.
- 2010 Election: Mahinda Rajapaksa secured 57.88% of the vote, receiving 6 million votes in an election with a total voter turnout of 74.49% (Wikipedia ).
- 2015 Election: The electorate grew to over 15 million registered voters, with a voter turnout of 81.52%, reflecting rising civic participation. Maithripala Sirisena, backed by a broad coalition, won with 51.28% of the vote, defeating Rajapaksa, who garnered 47.58%.
- 2019 Election: The voter base expanded further, with 83.73% turnout from nearly 16 million voters. Gotabaya Rajapaksa won with 52.25%, while Sajith Premadasa garnered 41.99%, marking a resurgence of Rajapaksa power( LankaWeb).
- 2024 Election: The voter turnout was slightly lower at 75%, with 17 million eligible voters. Dissanayake won the presidency with 5.6 million votes, reflecting the fragmentation of traditional political loyalties and a rise in support for new political movements(LankaWeb).
Decline of the Rajapaksa Family (2010–2024)
The dominance of the Rajapaksa family in Sri Lankan politics began in 2005 with Mahinda Rajapaksa’s election. After the end of the civil war in 2009, the family’s political power peaked, but subsequent elections saw their gradual decline.
- 2010 Election: Mahinda Rajapaksa was re-elected with a landslide, securing over 6 million votes. His dominance seemed unshakeable as he capitalized on the victory over the Tamil Tigers.
- 2015 Election: Mahinda Rajapaksa suffered a major setback, losing to Maithripala Sirisena by a narrow margin of 51.28% to 47.58%, signaling the start of the family’s decline as allegations of corruption and authoritarianism surfaced (Wikipedia).
- 2019 Election: Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s victory, with over 52% of the vote, was seen as a comeback for the family, but the presidency quickly became mired in economic mismanagement, culminating in the 2022 economic collapse that forced Gotabaya to flee the country and resign (LankaWeb).
- 2024 Election: The Rajapaksas were further marginalized, with Ranil Wickremesinghe, an ally of the family, securing only 17.27% of the vote. The family’s influence drastically waned as voters sought new leadership in the form of Anura Dissanayake, whose anti-corruption and reformist agenda resonated with a population suffering from the consequences of Rajapaksa-led governance (LankaWeb).
Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s Failures
The 2024 election results can also be understood in light of the failures of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency (2019-2022), which significantly contributed to his family’s decline in political influence. Some of the key reasons for Gotabaya’s fall from grace include:
- Economic Collapse: Gotabaya’s administration was widely blamed for Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, which culminated in 2022. His decision to ban chemical fertilizers overnight as part of a move toward organic farming severely damaged agricultural output, leading to food shortages and escalating inflation. The country’s foreign reserves dwindled, leading to a sovereign default in 2022—the first in Sri Lanka’s history(Wikipedia).
- Poor Debt Management: Rajapaksa’s government took on massive debt for infrastructure projects, many of which were seen as unnecessary or corrupt. This left the country vulnerable when the global pandemic hit, and tourism—the backbone of the economy—dried up. Rajapaksa’s inability to manage the debt crisis worsened the country’s financial situation(LankaWeb).
- Mismanagement of COVID-19: His government’s response to the pandemic was heavily criticized, with delayed lockdowns, vaccine mismanagement, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure exacerbating the health crisis. Public anger over how the crisis was handled led to mass protests across the country(LankaWeb).
- Authoritarianism and Corruption: Rajapaksa’s leadership style, marked by centralized decision-making and an erosion of democratic institutions, led to widespread accusations of corruption. His family dominated key positions in the government, fueling the perception of nepotism and misuse of state resources(LankaWeb).
Aragalaya Influence in 2024 Dissanayake's Victory
The Aragalaya movement played a pivotal role in Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory in the 2024 Sri Lankan Presidential Election. Aragalaya, which means "struggle" in Sinhala, was a grassroots protest movement that erupted in early 2022 as a direct response to the country’s deepening economic crisis. It united diverse segments of the population—students, middle-class professionals, laborers, and civil society—against the ruling government, particularly the Rajapaksa family, which had dominated Sri Lankan politics for over a decade.
Key Ways Aragalaya Influenced Dissanayake's Victory:
- Rejection of the Political Establishment: Aragalaya was fundamentally an anti-establishment movement, protesting against corruption, economic mismanagement, and authoritarian governance, which had characterized Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency. Protesters demanded systemic change, including reforms in governance, transparency, and economic accountability. Dissanayake’s platform, which emphasized anti-corruption, accountability, and people-centered governance, resonated deeply with the Aragalaya sentiment. His leftist ideology, rooted in workers' rights and social justice, aligned with the protesters' demand for political and economic equity(LankaWeb).
- Dissanayake’s Position as a Reformist Leader: Dissanayake, as leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), was one of the few prominent political figures who openly supported the Aragalaya movement. He consistently called for structural reforms and criticized the Rajapaksas' handling of the economy. His credibility as a reformist who had opposed the traditional ruling elites for decades gave him a unique position to channel the frustrations of the Aragalaya movement into a formal political challenge. He promised to deliver on the key demands of the movement, particularly economic relief, governance reforms, and addressing widespread corruption(Wikipedia).
- Mobilization of Youth and First-Time Voters: Aragalaya was driven largely by the youth of Sri Lanka, many of whom were first-time voters or politically disengaged before the protests. The movement’s digital presence on social media galvanized a new generation of voters who had become disillusioned with traditional political parties. Dissanayake’s campaign effectively captured this demographic by offering a vision of radical change that appealed to young voters eager for a new direction in Sri Lankan politics(Wikipedia)(LankaWeb).
- Political Realignment and the Fall of the Rajapaksas: The momentum from Aragalaya directly contributed to the downfall of Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July 2022, when he fled the country and resigned from the presidency amid mass protests. This opened a political vacuum and triggered widespread calls for the dismantling of the Rajapaksa political dynasty, which had been blamed for the country’s economic collapse. Dissanayake’s campaign capitalized on this sentiment, presenting the NPP as the only viable alternative to the corrupt political order that had dominated Sri Lanka for years(Wikipedia).
- Economic Crisis as a Catalyst: The economic collapse that led to Aragalaya was central to Dissanayake’s platform. Hyperinflation, severe shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, and a default on foreign debt under Gotabaya’s regime created widespread discontent. Dissanayake framed his economic policies as a solution to these crises, promising wealth redistribution, investment in public services, and a fairer debt restructuring process. Aragalaya's demands for economic justice were embodied in his campaign, and the protest movement’s momentum was critical in mobilizing voters around his message(LankaWeb).
Aragalaya acted as a powerful catalyst in transforming public sentiment and reshaping the political landscape of Sri Lanka. It facilitated Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s rise by breaking down the entrenched political order, mobilizing youth and disillusioned voters, and making governance reform a central election issue. His victory in the 2024 presidential election can be seen as the political outcome of the broader social movement that Aragalaya embodied—one that demanded a break from the past and a move toward transparency, economic equality, and a more just political system.
Key Campaign Promises of Anura Kumara Dissanayake
Dissanayake’s platform is centered on reform, accountability, and economic recovery. As a Marxist politician, his proposed policies contrast sharply with those of previous administrations, particularly the Rajapaksa regime. Here are some of his notable pledges:
- Economic Reform and Relief: Dissanayake has prioritized equitable economic policies that focus on the working class and vulnerable communities. He plans to:
- Implement wealth redistribution mechanisms to address inequality.
- Increase public investment in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, aiming to rebuild the public sector that suffered from austerity and privatization under previous governments.
- Combat corruption and increase transparency in public spending, a central concern following the economic mismanagement that led to Sri Lanka's financial collapse in 2022.
- Debt Restructuring and International Relations: Sri Lanka’s crippling debt crisis, exacerbated under Gotabaya Rajapaksa, is a priority for Dissanayake. He aims to:
- Pursue debt restructuring deals that are less punitive on social spending and welfare.
- Strengthen relations with multilateral organizations (like the IMF and World Bank) while seeking fairer terms for Sri Lanka in restructuring its external debt(LankaWeb).
- Agricultural and Environmental Reform: Dissanayake’s platform includes reversing some of the failed agricultural policies of the Rajapaksa regime, including:
- Supporting sustainable agriculture while promoting modern, scientifically backed farming practices to ensure food security.
- Investing in renewable energy as part of a green economic agenda, to reduce dependency on costly fossil fuel imports(LankaWeb).
- Governance and Anti-Corruption Measures: A major aspect of Dissanayake’s agenda is governance reform. He plans to:
- Reduce the executive powers of the presidency, ensuring greater accountability and democratic oversight.
- Crack down on corruption, promising to investigate and hold accountable key figures involved in the country’s economic mismanagement, particularly those from the Rajapaksa administration.
Electoral Shifts
The elections from 2010 to 2024 highlight several key trends:
- Decline of Rajapaksa Dominance: While the Rajapaksas dominated post-war elections, the 2024 election, which saw Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa both lose to Dissanayake, signals the diminishing influence of this political dynasty.
- Emergence of New Political Movements: The success of Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the NPP is a testament to the rising appeal of non-traditional, reformist, and leftist political platforms, especially among younger voters.
- Economic Concerns Driving Voter Behavior: Sri Lanka’s deep economic crisis, which began in 2022, has shifted voter priorities, with demands for transparency, governance reform, and economic relief shaping the outcome of the 2024 election.
Conclusion
The 2024 election not only marks the rise of Dissanayake and a leftist, reform-oriented government but also underscores the end of the Rajapaksa era, driven by widespread frustration over economic collapse, corruption, and poor governance. The growing voter base, combined with increased political awareness, has shifted the balance of power, setting a new course for Sri Lanka’s future.